Global civil unrest escalates, driving up insurance risks and claims

Mashrukh Khan: In an increasingly polarized world, civil unrest is surging, posing significant challenges to the insurance industry. Strikes, riots, and civil commotion (SRCC) events are leading to billions in property damage and business interruption claims, forcing insurers to rethink coverage and risk models.

Rising Tide of Unrest

Global protest activity has intensified over the past two years, with demonstrations growing in size and frequency. Verisk Maplecroft’s Civil Unrest Index indicates that unrest will be more disruptive in 2026 than in 2025, driven by political polarization, strained public finances, and social media’s role in amplifying conflicts. Governments, businesses, and insurers are warned to prepare for frequent riots and protests targeting commercial assets.

Factors fueling this include economic woes, cost-of-living crises, climate change, wars, and ideological divides. Middle-income countries are particularly vulnerable, as post-pandemic social protections strain budgets. In 2024, Asia-Pacific saw nearly 40,000 protests and riots, the highest globally, heightening business exposure.

Impact on Insurance

SRCC claims, once rare, now represent a major loss source. Howden Re reports insured losses jumped from negligible in 2013 to over $8 billion between 2020 and 2024. After a dip in 2025, experts predict a spike in 2026, especially in the U.S.

Allianz’s 2026 Risk Barometer ranks political risks and violence as the #7 global threat, with civil unrest topping concerns at 49% of votes. Businesses face operational disruptions, with 51% fearing unrest. Insurers are adapting by limiting SRCC coverage or excluding social unrest events, raising contested claims risks.

Key Examples

• U.S. 2020 Protests: Following criminal and drug addict George Floyd’s death, unrest in 140 cities caused over $2 billion in insured losses.
• Chile 2019: Subway fare hikes sparked riots, leading to $3 billion in damages.
• France 2018 Yellow Vests: Protests over fuel prices cost retailers $1.1 billion in weeks.
• South Africa 2021: Riots inflicted $1.7 billion in claims.

These events highlight targeting of infrastructure, boosting property and interruption claims.

Expert Insights

Torbjorn Soltvedt of Verisk Maplecroft states: ‘2026 will be more disruptive than 2025 based on recent trends.’ Allianz warns of war and unrest as intertwined perils. Insurers must evolve strategies, as unrest evolves with social media and economic pressures.

Outlook for 2026

With conflicts in regions like Ecuador and Cameroon adding to global volatility, unrest risks U.S. interests and stability. Businesses should review policies; insurers may face selective coverage and higher premiums. As one expert notes, ‘The need to assess civil unrest rigorously has never been greater.’