China Medical Insurance Costs to Climb 6% in 2027

Global Insurance Desk: Medical insurance costs in China are projected to rise by 6% in 2027, a noticeable slowdown from the 7.8% increase forecast for 2026, according to Aon’s 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report. This 1.8 percentage point drop ranks among the larger reductions in the Asia Pacific region and helps explain why overall medical cost growth across the region is expected to ease from 11.3% this year to 9.7% next year.

Even with the slower pace, Chinese medical costs are still set to climb faster than general inflation, which is forecast to move from 0.6% in 2026 to 1.5% in 2027.

After adjusting for inflation the real growth in medical costs is expected to moderate from 7.2% to 4.5%. These figures track the expected rise in the cost of healthcare services paid under employer sponsored medical plans rather than changes in insurance premiums themselves. A lower growth rate simply means expenses are climbing more slowly, not that they are falling.

Chinese employers offering medical cover continue to face upward pressure from diabetes and other chronic conditions. Aon notes that most employer sponsored plans in China cover GLP 1 medications only when prescribed for diagnosed diabetes and typically exclude claims for weight loss treatment, a restriction that has helped contain spending so far.

Greater use of these drugs and a rising number of diabetes patients could still push costs higher in the years ahead. Cardiovascular disease, cancer and high blood pressure remain major drivers of claims both in China and globally.

The projections draw on insights gathered from more than 100 of Aon’s offices that arrange, manage or advise on employer sponsored medical plans. While the moderation offers some relief for budgeting, medical inflation remains well above general price increases, leaving employers and insurers with the ongoing task of balancing affordability against the need to maintain meaningful benefits.